tv On the Move Bloomberg February 28, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EST
exactly two hours. >> what are we expecting? more pressure on the ecb. >> caroline is here, watching iag. >> look at the run on the shares in the past year. 2013 was the best performance of the ftse 100. it very narrowly missed estimates. 70 one million euros. more guidance for next year. they will he -- they want to be there estimates for next year. we didn't get any upgrades or any real clarity. spanish consumer prices ahead of the eurozone cpi time.n two hours'
was 0.004inary number february. of inflation. we have a decrease of .1%. for those numbers. >> you've seen the german numbers out yesterday. i think this is going to be a big focus this morning. information for europe is the magic number. futures pointed a little bit higher through the morning. opens.e the we haven't a bit of a higher open. pretty much dead flat. my focus today is over in fx. higher on those
german retail numbers. better than expected. we are a little bit low on spanish cpi at 9:00, 10:00 rather, we get the cpi number. than january and december. we see the trends here. we are not getting weak inflation in italy and spain, we're getting it in germany as well. if that number disappoints, there will be more pressure on the ecb to act. the euro dollar may get excited. bank is likely to keep trimming asset purchases, even as it monitors recent weaknesses in u.s. data. >> part of that softness may in the weeks and months ahead, my colleagues and i will be attentive to signals
the indicate what -- that recovery is progressing in line with our earlier expectations. his thoughts,for michael franklin, chief strategist at bo for to. at beaufort. >> it is difficult for central banks to know quite which way to jump if they don't have data to act on. we know the weather has been bad in the states. they won't know the true situation for a couple of months. we are flying blind at the moment. of low the prospect interest rates and low inflation. we don't really know how strong this -- >> you have ukraine brewing, we have all kinds of
elements influencing. the ftse 100 is at its highest nine -- since 1999. weeks agothis two when the employment numbers came out from the states. they were disappointing. they came out below expectation. the market did not worry about that and just roared ahead. the number of times you've seen the london market down in the morning and by the close it has been chugging ahead, it is pretty extraordinary. are the markets shrugging off elements like bad weather. ? fog?y do people drive and
human instincts take over. we don't know what the underlying situation is. the key thing that came up from the fed yesterday was -- it just reconfirm the point that the fed would be prepared to reduce the rate of tapering and even reverse it if the economy required it. they have invested so much in getting this recovery right, they don't want to mess it up for the sake of messing up tapering. >> your focus is on u.k. equities. these indices are at almost record highs. are you getting a bit nervous at these levels are not? >> is quite difficult to pursue the market at this point. the only people looking to put money in the market have to
recognize the heightened risk. we may get through the previous high. we make it up to the 7000 level. we may not, and as you see from my comments, we use a technical bottom-up approach. a lot of stocks are overbought at the moment. money is required for ipos as well. that, the inflation outlook is pretty good. except perhaps in europe where we have to watch it heard we don't want it turning into japan. >> would europe turn into japan? that is the big theme for today. >> give me five minutes. hold back some liquidity for purchases. -- there are a lot of companies coming to market in the next few months. are they enticing for investors?
companies like poundland? assume.uld be wrong to you have to be careful you don't get stuck with stocks that fall immediately. there are going to be some great opportunities. this is what markets are for, to raise money for these sorts of issues. you're saying private equity groups coming in. this is the point where they make their exit. we have to recognize that they are valuing the market as well. chiefhael franklin, investment strategist at beau fort. mario draghi gets his final piece of the data puzzle. this as the ecb is ready to define inflation. discuss his company's
your tablet and bloomberg.com. biggest maker of eyeglasses is on today. ray-ban and oakley. they're down 2.5% overnight. 6.1 adjusted their income million. analysts estimating 6.43 million euros. draghi getst mario the final piece of his data puzzle today before next week's policy meeting. our very own jonathan ferro is here to paint the picture. some of the key pieces at least. we will start with gdp. kind, we have the first time that the four major countries deliver growth since the start of 2011. it has been a while. likes of france are in
contraction territory. it is not pretty. here is a broad-based issue. low inflation is the issue. today is expected to show a number of 0.7% for the broader euro zone. when you put this together with the ecb's forecast delivered next week, where does ecb see inflation as far out as 2016? target see it passed a of two percent, people will raise the credibility question. you have a mandate and you're not hitting it. >> listening to mario draghi and various policy makers, they don't appeared too worried about inflation. not japan.zone is we don't have people postponing their expenditure plans. but remaining low for long. of time is a risk in itself. the banks say that the ecb will deny inflation to avoid
.riggering that is certainly one way of looking at it, but whatever the ecb thinks, if we get a lower number today, even if we are in line at 0.7%, the pressure will be on the ecb to act next week. michael, thanks for sticking around. i promised i would ask you this question. i grant you the time. is the ecb denying inflation? is it a deflation denier? for thenk that problem ecb is that they are running out of options in terms of how they will tackle this. interest rates are already very low. it must be quite worrying for them. given that the ecb is not a proper central bank, they are up against the wall. maybe they are denying it very it don't speak euro. [laughter] >> the bank of england does not
seem to be two in denial. in denial. is that still relevant, going for the sectors? >> we do monitor the markets very closely. at the moment we are in this frothy area where the market looks to be reasonably valued in the short term. we may get a challenge on the previous highs, we may get a pullback and then have another attempt. i think over the coming weeks and months we may see some good opportunities. then we may say yes, we will go back. do think shares may have to fall by certain amount, maybe five percent or 10%, to get back in? >> i wouldn't say that much.
we did have a big drop towards the end of january, and then we had a furious rally. i think we are looking, i am expecting stocks to come back, the thing is -- the great thing with the market is that you take different sectors and they are changing directions at various times. a lot of them are quite high. we have various things happening in the market at the moment which are attending -- as we run up toward the general election, some of the political comments that come out are designed to unsettle the electorate. the problem is, they tend to unsettle the market as well. we have seen this with the power companies. we could get more of that as we get closer to the election. >> and banks as well. andy comments from the government or from the likes of rbs? butds will be welcome, those are the types of u.k. banks that divide value. when it comes to yield, hsbc.
you trystands out. if to assess lloyd's, it is for a political at the moment. we know the government is looking to sell more of the position out. but we don't know what that level will be at. rbs, well, who knows what is going on there at the moment. it is just a nightmare. at the right price we might be a buyer of it. >> it is well below breaking, the price, isn't it? the wholesale group and micro focus, what attributes to those types of companies have? >> just taking booker, for instance. it is tapped into the economy, as is michael page. you can argue that. the moreus is difficult country -- company to pin onto that.
every stock has its price. some of these have had a good run in the last few weeks. they might need to come back. i am advocating a little caution. i recognize things can jump when you least expect it. we have seen a few swan songs coming out of stocks. they have done a spike and then they started to fall back. we could see that but the market as a whole. elaborate what that actually means for our viewers that aren't so clued up. >> basically, what we can do is s&pen indices such as the 500, or the ftse 100, which ever in dictation you want to take. we look at the stocks that are offering relative interest for the market.
you have a set of banks that will crunch the numbers on a whole range of stocks. somebody has got to do it. the point is that the recommendations that come out of that don't time with the market. we have effectively reversed that process. if we can identify the situations with her interesting, let's go back to the fundamentals and see if there are reasons why we should not follow the stocks now. i am sure other people are doing that sort of thing. >> historically, where are we in the types of stock which you ?ould look forward, recommend where are we versus six months ago, a year ago? >> things are looking a bit pricey at the moment. sometimes things can move through that. it depends on the underlying tone of the market. 1.i wanted to make, perhaps onetly mischievously, --
make, perhaps to thattly mischievously is we get situations that appear and then gradually fade away like the cheshire cat. it is like amber flashing lights, the ginger cat. that is just the scenario. i am on drugs. >> the big flashing lights in 2014 might be? i know we can't tell what a black swan is, that's why it is called a black swan. ukraine and china are both in that category at the moment very looking further out, the trend in interest rates is going to -- we get enormous speculation about ren -- about when rates will move up. it may well be that the government will decide to kick that into the longer grass.
we may not see the change until the second half of next year. it is speculation. it is like what is happening with the weather, is a global warning? global warming? >> you put your head on the block on when rates would be raised in the u.k.. in the secondnk half. i am a broker. i can be flexible. [laughter] you -- goodhat to to chat with you, michael. coming up, find out what is listed. details when we return. ♪
they could spin off sfr to vivendi investors. the industry gives its primary product away. the tokyo-based message morecation has grown to 370 million subscribers since its creation in 2011. now they're said to be seeking a stake in the company. aircrafttching the /airplane owner i ag they released figures earlier. our bloomberg aviation reporter rob wall is here. they are profitable again. >> exactly. members are very much in line. they delivered a good, healthy profit. to gettingll online to the profit numbers.
>> the focus seems to be on iberia. is it close to posting a profit, or not? >> we talked to the ceo this morning. he is holding to his commitment that iberia will make an operating profit this year. it is not just about iberia. british airways had tremendous year.s as well last transatlantic traffic has really helped them. they are really searching. >> interesting to read that the spanish market is still suffering from a weak economy. progress with unions is good. tell us about the ongoing discussions with spanish unions. >> art of the agreement with iberia is that they need to maintain sustainable growth. they have agreements with the pilots and the cabin crews. ground handlers are still waiting. the agreements they have still need to be ratified. that is why if you look at the shares they are muted today.
as willie walsh says himself, there is still work to do. to bet is expected completed in 2015. that is when air france has its big turnaround plans and lufthansa as well. i ag seems to be sneaking ahead of the other two when it comes to turnarounds. >> absolutely. there've made the most progress. especially if they get the union agreements ratified in the next couple of weeks and months. they will be in a good position. >> shares are down today by two percent. but look at that, they've had a great year. there up by 84%. rob, good to talk to you. rob wall, bloomberg aviation reporter. it is 8:26. we may not have heard the last --m these former presidents
in the currency markets, janet anden, the fed chair spoke it seems to be that we will stay at the current rate. sterlinghe eurozone, is up against the dollar. the aussie dollar is unchanged against the u.s. dollar. these are the bloomberg top headlines today. federal reserve chairman janet yellen said the central bank is likely to keep trimming. taperingso said that is likely to end in the fall. the fed is open to reconsidering the pace if there is a change in the outlook. ecb president mario draghi says members are committed to defending the euro against deflation. speech the comments in a
in frankfurt yesterday. it economist predict inflation slowed to 0.7% in february. the data will be released today at 10 a.m. london time. there is speculation the central will wind in the trading band. the yuan has dropped to the lowest since 2007. china's central bank will double the trading band by the end of june. joining us now to discuss his company possible earnings is the chief executive officer of abertis. big in toll roads and telecommunications infrastructure, thank you very much for joining us. 25%, two thirds
of your sales are generated outside of spain. can you continue the performance you had in 2013 in 2014? aim of the company is to become a global company. world widebecame the leader. we worked hard to integrate our new positions in brazil and chile. we are targeting the world as our market. you're pretty convinced that we will have a lot of opportunities . our business is long-term. our business is related to concessions, which means private money for public investment. pdp, and we are proud that we are ranked number one in our or. >> the traffic outlook has been good. the numbers are good in all your key markets, barring spain. quarter, fourth quarter
of last year, has been the best since 2008. is spain turning when it comes to the traffic outlook? >> indeed. spain is getting better and better. if you look at the figures, we start with declining traffic in the first quarter of 2013 by nine percent. it has declined by a small percent in the last quarter. are nowmany of the jobs performing. better we will have a 2014. >> we have inflation data from spain. it shows deflation on a year on year basis. how does that feed into your business? is linked tothat our business. we have done our job internally. we have been promoting efficiency programs that are
clearly offsetting the problems we may have on the income side. i am pretty convinced that with the recovery margins, the company will get much better. >> will the economy look better and014 than it did in 2013 2012 and 2011? the government is making reforms. unemployment is still high. there's a deflationary trend within the country. what is the outlook for spain economically this year? >> spain has been suffering a very long crisis, since 2008. to be honest, economic things do not change from one day to the next. many things have been done in the last two years. hopefully we will start to get this feedback, positive feedback -- >> the exports from spain are at record levels. >> absolutely. , trucks on thes
motorways are growing faster than light vehicles. that is a demonstration that our expert activities are getting better. >> you want to grow in the u.s. and australia. you are big in chile and brazil. gives a taste for what is happening in some of these emerging markets, given the volatility we have seen at the start of 2014. arehe first market where we out of spain is france. this is the first investor in france. the first spanish investor in france. we have invested over 5 billion since we came in. we are seeing a very strong neither although traffic nor gdp is showing such a richness. france is a wealthy country. but we are also a long-term investor. we have been criticized sometimes because of the special by quarter in
brazil or argentina or chile. thinkers.g-term we are pretty convinced that our investments on that side of the world will go better and better. that is a demonstration in the traffic figures. contracts toll road globally right now? >> our strategy is to become global and try to combine emerging markets with secure markets. that is the reason why we are targeting countries like the u.s. and the u.k. and australia. the way to discuss a project in australia. i cannot explain more than this. of course, it is a very interesting market. >> telecom italia have been trying to sell its towers. who knows how long? are you to buy them or not? >> it depends if it is a good
project. we will look at any project that makes sense, but we will never break any of our golden rules , which is mainly value creation and maintaining our dividend funds. what is the outlook for 2014 when it comes to investing him and where are you investing? >> keep in mind that our investments are a consequence of a combination of recurrent -- we have been investing parallel to our percentage, country by country. for example, 30% of these investments have been focused on the spanish economy. we took over the majority of [indiscernible] . in brazil we have invested
the most because we enter with a very important program. the parents we will invest with more is france. it is a very special and creative solution for public investment with private money. we're going to focus in france, as well. >> on the day that the ecb releases inflation figures, what would you like the ecb to do? would you like a further rate cut? q1 a negative rate cut. -- or a negative rate cut? is at a fixeddebt
rate could we have made it our job not to be dependent on the decisions on the day today. we can ask any central bank to take the best decision for the whole country, not just for one company. >> final question, is barcelona going to win the league in spain and the champions league? >> of course we will say yes. we saw a real madrid win. case, we will have a spanish company at the end. >> thank you, francisco. the chiefeynes, executive of abertis. >> ukrainian parliament has just voted in a new government. country preparing their
for snap elections in may. in the meantime, the u.s. has ponied up a billion dollars in terms of loan guarantees. they're sending a delegation here next week. big ones. issues are this country owes $13 billion. a lot of that money is due in june. i spoke with a new prime minister and he says he thinks he can keep things together. >> we will do everything not to default. we have resources. if we get support from the united states, from the european union and imf, we will do it. >> those loans will come with conditions that won't go down well here in ukraine. think of this as greece 2.0. meanwhile, plenty going on outside kiev. in crimea, gunmen have seized the legislature, lowering the
ukrainian flag and raising the russian flag. the country, viktor yanukovych, this country's former president, is in russia very he says he will hold a press conference there this friday. ryan chilcote, bloomberg, kiev. >> ryan is on the phone from kiev. ukraine is seeking international monitoring of events in crimea. lawmakers have approved a resolution to seek international monitoring as well. how likely is it that what is happening in crimea really does spin out of control? is a good question. all we can set this point is what is actually happening. this all started this morning when a second group of gunmen, or armed man if you will, appeared at the airport in a city in crimea.
already another group of armed men inside the regional legislature there. areas unclear who these men . subsequently, we have heard from the country's president saying that there are russian troops moving around ukraine without coordination, without coordinating with the ukraine. as you say, asking for international assistance in monitoring events in crimea. there is speculation, and i underline the word speculation, that these troops are somehow related, or these armed men are somehow related to russia. as least as far -- at least as far as evidence, these are not russian troops. just as in the case of the armed men in the parliament, they are not wearing any identifying they have not spoken with journalist to communicate who they are or what their intentions are, or where
they are going. clearly, this is a [inaudible] for the ukraine. of course, financial assistance is being overshadowed, while waiting for the prime minister to start speaking. the head of the central bank is giving us an update on their talks with international creditors. >> what will we be expecting yanukovych to say? does anyone care? >> you know, it is interesting. he really does not have a lot of support in this country. if you think about the fact that he did have a small contingent of supporters, once people saw the palace, he lost that support. he is now effectively under russian protection. reasonably, they will be sanctioning what he says. we will have to listen. yes, this is a destabilizing
factor for ukraine. >> ryan, i chatted to the great-granddaughter of the former soviet premier nikita khrushchev earlier. russiad that she thinks could get involved, could intervene with its military. that is a big call. what are people saying their? >> that is the concern. i don't think we can rule it out there and we have not seen any hard evidence of that yet. of speculation, of course. russians are conducting an exercise just over the border, but i wouldn't rule it out. >> ryan, thanks a lot. we will talk with you later. ryan chilcote live on the phone from kiev. next, i'm going to take a thatat the tax price rate zara has to thank for that.
it has the best profit margins in the industry, at least in part due to tax loopholes. loop holet tax benefit from? claimis -- a sickly, they the rights to the brand names of the in the text brands -- of the brands. when they have stores in rome or london or paris, the subsidiaries have to pay substantial royalties into this unit in the netherlands. that has the effect of moving billions of dollars of income, taxable income out of those countries and into the netherlands and switzerland,
where they have a tax advantage. >> i suppose that affects margins in a different way in different countries, to? countries,fferent too? >> in the netherlands are switzerland they have very low tax rates. in italy and the u.k. and france and germany, it european markets their profit margins have been between three percent and five percent. that is different from what the companies tell their shareholders. the profit margin is more like 15%. inditex say? how do they defend this behavior. ?
the proper paying amount of royalties into the subsidiary in the netherlands? on thing that is very interesting and that raised eyebrows, is that if you look at the subsidiary that is electing itig chunk of the profits, employs less than 1/10 of one percent of the world -- of the company's worldwide workforce. this little subsidiary in holland is seven times as profitable as apple, the most sizable company in the world. the transactions are legal, the question is about the degree and the prices that are used in these transactions. >> what is being done to stem this sort of action? unionht now, the european and the g 20 is working on a big project called base erosion, which is the erosion of the tax base in different countries.
they're going to come out with guidance sometime later this year to stem some of these transactions. >> jesse, good to talk to you. jesse drucker. up next, "the pulse," coming up in about eight minutes. >> mark, what have we got coming up? deal thise a big morning. we will hear from jonathan ferro about the implications for the eurozone and the ecb. will be with us to give his assessment. we'll also be talking to him about the u.k. and united states. weather inout the the u.s.. us from guest joins hong kong. -- the imfre will be is in the eye of the storm when
>> check out the big action. isoline is here and jon here. much an education company. they have slowing sales in the u.s. they orient themselves to the american market. shares are up by more than -- are off by more than eight percent. finally, we're back in profit. to see them upm their future profit estimates. they have not done that. >> my favorite quote came from jon's mouth. i-formation denier. >> a couple of people have told me that by -- that might be an insult to japan. missed on inflation, so has germany.
>> confusion in the crimea. ukraine's acting president accuses russia of being directly involved in the region's conflict. ready to act. new cpi data is released today. we will get some pin codes and the info on what mario draghi should do next week. pimco is coming back into the black. the revamp of iberia continues.